TY - JOUR
T1 - SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics
AU - Wikle, Nathan B.
AU - Nguyen-Anh Tran, Thu
AU - Gentilesco, Bethany
AU - Leighow, Scott M.
AU - Albert, Emmy
AU - Strong, Emily R.
AU - Brinda, Karel
AU - Inam, Haider
AU - Yang, Fuhan
AU - Hossain, Sajid
AU - Chan, Philip
AU - Hanage, William P.
AU - Messick, Maria
AU - Pritchard, Justin R.
AU - Hanks, Ephraim M.
AU - Boni, Maciej F.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved;
PY - 2022/1
Y1 - 2022/1
N2 - State-level reopenings in late spring 2020 facilitated the resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states—Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania—that had successful reopenings in May 2020 without summer waves of infection. Using 11 daily data streams, we show that from spring to summer, the epidemic shifted from an older to a younger age profile and that elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts during the lockdown period when compared to younger individuals. Clinical case management improved from spring to summer, resulting in fewer critical care admissions and lower infection fatality rate. Attack rate estimates through 31 August 2020 are 6.2% [95% credible interval (CI), 5.7 to 6.8%] of the total population infected for Rhode Island, 6.7% (95% CI, 5.4 to 7.6%) in Massachusetts, and 2.7% (95% CI, 2.5 to 3.1%) in Pennsylvania.
AB - State-level reopenings in late spring 2020 facilitated the resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states—Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania—that had successful reopenings in May 2020 without summer waves of infection. Using 11 daily data streams, we show that from spring to summer, the epidemic shifted from an older to a younger age profile and that elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts during the lockdown period when compared to younger individuals. Clinical case management improved from spring to summer, resulting in fewer critical care admissions and lower infection fatality rate. Attack rate estimates through 31 August 2020 are 6.2% [95% credible interval (CI), 5.7 to 6.8%] of the total population infected for Rhode Island, 6.7% (95% CI, 5.4 to 7.6%) in Massachusetts, and 2.7% (95% CI, 2.5 to 3.1%) in Pennsylvania.
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U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.abf9868
DO - 10.1126/sciadv.abf9868
M3 - Article
C2 - 35080987
AN - SCOPUS:85123639984
SN - 2375-2548
VL - 8
JO - Science Advances
JF - Science Advances
IS - 4
M1 - eabf9868
ER -