Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emission Changes Resulting from a Rural Residential Land Decrement Strategy: A Case Study in China

Greening the unused or inefficient land surface is of vital importance to increase the carbon pool in environmentally fragile but depopulated rural areas. A proactive land-use strategy, rural residential land decrement (RRLD), is triggered by rural land abandonment and can contribute to greening the land surface. A RRLD can be designed and implemented according to the specific regulations and rules and linked to regional environmental change. However, the carbon consequences of implementing multi-scenario RRLDs remain unknown. Thus, this study exemplifies a rural county of China, proposes a framework that illustrates how spatial zoning, decision model, and prediction techniques jointly determine the RRLD, and accounts for the associated carbon emissions under three scenarios. The results demonstrate that half of the 2012.23 hectares of RRLs were recommended for conversion to farming or gardening use. Under the scenarios of agricultural priority, compact ecological priority, and complete ecological priority, the change of carbon emission capacity in one township could be up to 77.41 tCO₂ yr⁻¹, −172.32 tCO₂ yr⁻¹, and −209.07 tCO₂ yr⁻¹. The total change of Fang’s carbon budget ranged from −1179.91 tCO₂ yr⁻¹ (sequestration) to 461.53 tCO₂ yr⁻¹ (emission). The findings provide a practical paradigm for utilizing land-use strategies to improve the carbon-related environment.