TY - JOUR
T1 - Small-area population forecasting in an urban setting
T2 - A spatial regression approach
AU - Chi, Guangqing
AU - Zhou, Xuan
AU - Voss, Paul R.
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2011 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2011/9
Y1 - 2011/9
N2 - This study revisits a spatial regression approach for small-area population forecasting that considers not only direct drivers of local area population growth but also neighbour growth and neighbour characteristics. Previous research suggested that the approach does not outperform extrapolation projections, the currently most-often-used small-area population forecasting technique. We argue the reason is that population growth is affected by its influential factors differently in urban, suburban, and rural areas. Therefore, we hypothesize that the spatial regression forecasting approach can perform better in one type of area at a time, where the influential factors' effects on population growth can be estimated more accurately. This study is focused on census tracts of the city of Milwaukee, USA, to test the performance of the spatial regression approach in an urban setting. The analyses reveal mixed results and do not suggest that the spatial regression approach unambiguously outperforms extrapolation projections.
AB - This study revisits a spatial regression approach for small-area population forecasting that considers not only direct drivers of local area population growth but also neighbour growth and neighbour characteristics. Previous research suggested that the approach does not outperform extrapolation projections, the currently most-often-used small-area population forecasting technique. We argue the reason is that population growth is affected by its influential factors differently in urban, suburban, and rural areas. Therefore, we hypothesize that the spatial regression forecasting approach can perform better in one type of area at a time, where the influential factors' effects on population growth can be estimated more accurately. This study is focused on census tracts of the city of Milwaukee, USA, to test the performance of the spatial regression approach in an urban setting. The analyses reveal mixed results and do not suggest that the spatial regression approach unambiguously outperforms extrapolation projections.
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U2 - 10.1007/s12546-011-9053-6
DO - 10.1007/s12546-011-9053-6
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:79957964429
SN - 1443-2447
VL - 28
SP - 185
EP - 201
JO - Journal of Population Research
JF - Journal of Population Research
IS - 2-3
ER -