Smoothing of climate time series revisited

Michael E. Mann

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

69 Scopus citations


We present an easily implemented method for smoothing climate time series, generalizing upon an approach previously described by Mann (2004). The method adaptively weights the three lowest order time series boundary constraints to optimize the fit with the raw time series. We apply the method to the instrumental global mean temperature series from 1850-2007 and to various surrogate global mean temperature series from 1850-2100 derived from the CMIP3 multimodel intercomparison project. These applications demonstrate that the adaptive method systematically out-performs certain widely used default smoothing methods, and is more likely to yield accurate assessments of long-term warming trends.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberL16708
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Issue number16
StatePublished - Aug 28 2008

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • General Earth and Planetary Sciences


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