Social reform as a path to political leadership: A dynamic model

A political leader, aiming to replace a repressive regime, wishes to establish her credibility with citizens whose participation in her movement affects its success. If her perceived ability is in an intermediate range of values, her optimal strategy is to masquerade as a no-threat before announcing a movement directly against the regime. In this range, for low costs of repression, the regime finds it optimal to exert force even against a movement that has purely non-political motives. Interestingly, if the average ability of the political leader is low (high) relative to the non-political type, then the range where the regime exerts force against a non-political movement, increases (decreases) with the leader's likelihood of being non-political.