Stage I rectal cancer: Identification of high-risk patients

Background: Stage I rectal cancer (T1, T2 N0) is currently treated by surgical resection alone. Despite adequate surgical resection, approximately 10-15% of patients will develop recurrence. Identification of patients at high risk for recurrence could potentially lead to an improvement in outcome by selection of these patients for adjuvant therapy. Methods: Between June 1986 and September 1996, 211 patients with primary rectal cancer (stage I) were treated by radical surgical resection alone. The medical data of all patients were entered into a database and prospectively followed. The following 10 prognostic factors were correlated with recurrence and tumor- related mortality: patient factors: age, gender, and preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level; tumor factors: location from the anal verge (< 6 cm vs. ≤ 6 cm), T stage (T1 vs. T2), intratumoral blood vessel invasion (BVI), intratumoral lymphatic vessel invasion, presence of tumor ulceration, and histologic differentiation; and treatment-related factors: extent of surgical resection - abdominal perineal resection versus low anterior resection. Univariate analysis of the effect of the prognostic factors on recurrence and tumor-related mortality were performed by the method of Kaplan-Meier and log rank test. Independent prognostic factors were determined by a multivariate analysis performed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: The overall 5-year actuarial recurrence was 12% and tumor-related mortality was 10%. Independent predictors of recurrence were male gender and BVI. Independent predictors of tumor-related mortality were male gender, BVI, and poorly differentiated tumors. Conclusions: Despite radical resection, patients with stage I rectal cancer with male gender, BVI, and poorly differentiated tumors should be considered high-risk patients.