Statistical modeling of changes in relative sea level in Maine during the Holocene Era

Understanding past relative sea-level changes is important to a number of social and scientific questions, including the effects of global climate change and future land-use planning under scenarios of accelerated sea-level rise with a concomitant increased threat to coastal areas around the world. In particular, accurately characterizing millennial sea-level changes is important in evaluating vertical movements of the Earth's crust that happen in response to the advances and retreats of ice sheets during long-term climatic cycles. In this paper, we analyze sea-level data from several Maine salt marshes previously reported in a paper from the geological literature. We address these data and questions of geological interest with a 'smooth transition' model.