Statistical Modeling of Corrosion Failures in Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines

Mustafa M. Cobanoglu, Sharareh Kermanshachi, Ivan Damnjanovic

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

Natural gas pipelines are critical component of U.S. energy infrastructure. The safety of these pipelines plays a key role in the gas industry. Therefore, understanding pipeline failure characteristics and consequences is a very important criterion in decisions making process associated with future design and maintenance of natural gas pipelines. The oil and gas industry spends billions of dollars annually for the corrosion-related issues due to aging and deterioration processes in pipeline networks. Therefore, pipeline operators need to constantly evaluate and update their corrosion prevention strategies. The loss due to corrosion failures is the main motivation for the oil and gas industry to develop accurate maintenance models based on failure frequency. Statistical pipeline failure models and proper maintenance decisions play a significant role in reducing the failure rates of the pipelines and ultimately enhance the cost effectiveness and safety of the pipelines. This paper fulfilled the following two objectives: (1) failure mode characteristics identification, and (2) model development to address the failure rate and reliability. The pipeline failure incident data used for this study was collected from eleven largest natural gas transmission pipeline operators' data from 2001 to 2011. The pipeline networks were divided into two major modes: internal and external corrosion. Internal corrosion refers to the failure inside the pipe due to the liquid characteristics and operating conditions whereas external corrosion refers to the failure due to surrounding environment outside the pipeline. Two major applied stochastic models, homogeneous Poisson process (HPP) and non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP), were tested to analyze the reliability trend within categorized installation times. The outcome of the tests on the reliability models shows that the reliability should be modeled with NHPP and the trend is dominantly deteriorating for external and internal corrosion with a few exceptions on stationary and improving. It was also shown that decades of installation and the number of previous failures are the two significant pipeline failure characteristics. The result of this study assists decision-making process in the oil and gas industry to predict the expected number of failures in future transmission pipeline operation more accurately and facilitates the utilization of proper preventive maintenance strategies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationPipelines 2016
Subtitle of host publicationOut of Sight, Out of Mind, Not Out of Risk - Proceedings of the Pipelines 2016 Conference
EditorsBryon L. Livingston, Jim Geisbush, Cliff Cate, Jeffrey W. Heidrick, Anna Pridmore
PublisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Pages195-204
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9780784479957
DOIs
StatePublished - 2016
EventPipelines 2016 Conference: Out of Sight, Out of Mind, Not Out of Risk - Kansas City, United States
Duration: Jul 17 2016Jul 20 2016

Publication series

NamePipelines 2016: Out of Sight, Out of Mind, Not Out of Risk - Proceedings of the Pipelines 2016 Conference

Conference

ConferencePipelines 2016 Conference: Out of Sight, Out of Mind, Not Out of Risk
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityKansas City
Period7/17/167/20/16

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology

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