Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making

James D. Nichols; Tiffany L. Bogich; Emily Howerton; Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Rebecca K. Borchering; Matthew Ferrari; Murali Haran; Christopher Jewell; Kim M. Pepin; William J.M. Probert; Juliet R.C. Pulliam; Michael C. Runge; Michael Tildesley; Cecile Viboud; Katriona Shea

doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307

Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making

James D. Nichols, Tiffany L. Bogich, Emily Howerton, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Rebecca K. Borchering, Matthew Ferrari, Murali Haran, Christopher Jewell, Kim M. Pepin, William J.M. Probert, Juliet R.C. Pulliam, Michael C. Runge, Michael Tildesley, Cecile Viboud, Katriona Shea

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

More than 1.6 million Servere Acute Respiratory Syndrome Cronovirus 2(SARS-COV-2)tests were administered daily in the United States at the peak of the epidemic, with a significant focus on individual treatment. Here, we show that objective-driven, strategic sampling designs and analyses can maximize information gain at the population level, which is necessary to increase situational awareness and predict, prepare for, and respond to a pandemic, while also continuing to inform individual treatment. By focusing on specific objectives such as individual treatment or disease prediction and control (e.g., via the collection of population- level statistics to inform lockdown measures or vaccine rollout) and drawing from the literature on capture-recapture methods to deal with nonrandom sampling and testing errors, we illustrate how public health objectives can be achieved even with limited test availability when testing programs are designed a priori to meet those objectives.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	e3001307
Journal	PLoS biology
Volume	19
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307
State	Published - Jun 2021

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General Neuroscience
General Immunology and Microbiology
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences

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10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307

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Nichols, J. D., Bogich, T. L., Howerton, E., Bjørnstad, O. N., Borchering, R. K., Ferrari, M., Haran, M., Jewell, C., Pepin, K. M., Probert, W. J. M., Pulliam, J. R. C., Runge, M. C., Tildesley, M., Viboud, C., & Shea, K. (2021). Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making. PLoS biology, 19(6), Article e3001307. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307

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title = "Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making",

abstract = "More than 1.6 million Servere Acute Respiratory Syndrome Cronovirus 2(SARS-COV-2)tests were administered daily in the United States at the peak of the epidemic, with a significant focus on individual treatment. Here, we show that objective-driven, strategic sampling designs and analyses can maximize information gain at the population level, which is necessary to increase situational awareness and predict, prepare for, and respond to a pandemic, while also continuing to inform individual treatment. By focusing on specific objectives such as individual treatment or disease prediction and control (e.g., via the collection of population- level statistics to inform lockdown measures or vaccine rollout) and drawing from the literature on capture-recapture methods to deal with nonrandom sampling and testing errors, we illustrate how public health objectives can be achieved even with limited test availability when testing programs are designed a priori to meet those objectives.",

author = "Nichols, \{James D.\} and Bogich, \{Tiffany L.\} and Emily Howerton and Bj{\o}rnstad, \{Ottar N.\} and Borchering, \{Rebecca K.\} and Matthew Ferrari and Murali Haran and Christopher Jewell and Pepin, \{Kim M.\} and Probert, \{William J.M.\} and Pulliam, \{Juliet R.C.\} and Runge, \{Michael C.\} and Michael Tildesley and Cecile Viboud and Katriona Shea",

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Nichols, JD, Bogich, TL, Howerton, E, Bjørnstad, ON, Borchering, RK, Ferrari, M , Haran, M, Jewell, C, Pepin, KM, Probert, WJM, Pulliam, JRC, Runge, MC, Tildesley, M, Viboud, C & Shea, K 2021, 'Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making', PLoS biology, vol. 19, no. 6, e3001307. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307

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AU - Nichols, James D.

AU - Bogich, Tiffany L.

AU - Howerton, Emily

AU - Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

AU - Borchering, Rebecca K.

AU - Ferrari, Matthew

AU - Haran, Murali

AU - Jewell, Christopher

AU - Pepin, Kim M.

AU - Probert, William J.M.

AU - Pulliam, Juliet R.C.

AU - Runge, Michael C.

AU - Tildesley, Michael

AU - Viboud, Cecile

AU - Shea, Katriona

PY - 2021/6

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Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making

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