TY - GEN
T1 - SURROGATE MODELING FOR RAPID THERMAL ANALYSIS OF ISS PAYLOAD
AU - Johnson, Jayson
AU - McPherson, Michael
AU - Clark, Mykenzie
AU - Smith, Sonya
AU - Sasaki, Makoto
AU - Krizmanic, John
AU - Cannady, Nicholas
AU - Rauch, Brian
AU - Coutu, Stephane
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2025 by ASME and The United States Government.
PY - 2025
Y1 - 2025
N2 - Efficient thermal analysis is vital for spacecraft reliability, yet traditional simulations like Thermal Desktop are computationally intensive. This study presents a machine learning-driven surrogate model that rapidly predicts node temperatures in the ISS Japanese Experiment Module using parameters such as yaw, pitch, roll, incident heating, and beta angle. Trained on precomputed data, the model delivers predictions in 1 second-200,000× faster than conventional methods-while maintaining a mean absolute error of 1.181°F and R2 = 0.9976. Automated scripts enhanced case setup, data extraction, and visualization, reducing manual processing times by up to 93%. This efficiency allows engineers to focus on design optimization and anomaly detection. The surrogate model supports the development of real-time digital twins for spacecraft thermal management and has applications in lunar habitats and planetary rovers. Future work includes expanding datasets, integrating uncertainty quantification, and using real-time sensor data for adaptive predictions. This approach bridges physics-based simulations with real-time analytics, offering a scalable, accurate, and high-speed solution for spacecraft thermal analysis.
AB - Efficient thermal analysis is vital for spacecraft reliability, yet traditional simulations like Thermal Desktop are computationally intensive. This study presents a machine learning-driven surrogate model that rapidly predicts node temperatures in the ISS Japanese Experiment Module using parameters such as yaw, pitch, roll, incident heating, and beta angle. Trained on precomputed data, the model delivers predictions in 1 second-200,000× faster than conventional methods-while maintaining a mean absolute error of 1.181°F and R2 = 0.9976. Automated scripts enhanced case setup, data extraction, and visualization, reducing manual processing times by up to 93%. This efficiency allows engineers to focus on design optimization and anomaly detection. The surrogate model supports the development of real-time digital twins for spacecraft thermal management and has applications in lunar habitats and planetary rovers. Future work includes expanding datasets, integrating uncertainty quantification, and using real-time sensor data for adaptive predictions. This approach bridges physics-based simulations with real-time analytics, offering a scalable, accurate, and high-speed solution for spacecraft thermal analysis.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105035991496
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105035991496#tab=citedBy
U2 - 10.1115/IMECE2025-166424
DO - 10.1115/IMECE2025-166424
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:105035991496
T3 - ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE)
BT - Micro- and Nano-Systems Engineering and Packaging; Safety Engineering, Risk and Reliability Analysis; Special Symposium on Additive Manufacturing on Benchmark Test Series; Special Symposium on Power; Research Posters
PB - American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
T2 - ASME 2025 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, IMECE 2025
Y2 - 16 November 2025 through 20 November 2025
ER -