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SURROGATE MODELING FOR RAPID THERMAL ANALYSIS OF ISS PAYLOAD

  • Jayson Johnson
  • , Michael McPherson
  • , Mykenzie Clark
  • , Sonya Smith
  • , Makoto Sasaki
  • , John Krizmanic
  • , Nicholas Cannady
  • , Brian Rauch
  • , Stephane Coutu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Efficient thermal analysis is vital for spacecraft reliability, yet traditional simulations like Thermal Desktop are computationally intensive. This study presents a machine learning-driven surrogate model that rapidly predicts node temperatures in the ISS Japanese Experiment Module using parameters such as yaw, pitch, roll, incident heating, and beta angle. Trained on precomputed data, the model delivers predictions in 1 second-200,000× faster than conventional methods-while maintaining a mean absolute error of 1.181°F and R2 = 0.9976. Automated scripts enhanced case setup, data extraction, and visualization, reducing manual processing times by up to 93%. This efficiency allows engineers to focus on design optimization and anomaly detection. The surrogate model supports the development of real-time digital twins for spacecraft thermal management and has applications in lunar habitats and planetary rovers. Future work includes expanding datasets, integrating uncertainty quantification, and using real-time sensor data for adaptive predictions. This approach bridges physics-based simulations with real-time analytics, offering a scalable, accurate, and high-speed solution for spacecraft thermal analysis.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationMicro- and Nano-Systems Engineering and Packaging; Safety Engineering, Risk and Reliability Analysis; Special Symposium on Additive Manufacturing on Benchmark Test Series; Special Symposium on Power; Research Posters
PublisherAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
ISBN (Electronic)9780791889404
DOIs
StatePublished - 2025
EventASME 2025 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, IMECE 2025 - Memphis, United States
Duration: Nov 16 2025Nov 20 2025

Publication series

NameASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE)
Volume9

Conference

ConferenceASME 2025 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, IMECE 2025
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityMemphis
Period11/16/2511/20/25

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Mechanical Engineering

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