System dynamics based manpower modeling

Organizations from healthcare to military units rely on manpower to ensure that their objectives can be efficiently met. Manpower models such as system dynamics have been developed to use forecasts to support decision making and policy formulation in large organizations. Instead of producing one or multiple values, these models allow for what-if analysis by permitting the user to change input parameters. The benefit of these types of models is that they are more focused on the behavior of the system and how personnel levels within the system change over time. This research looks to develop a system dynamics model that allows an organization to evaluate the relative importance of several factors, such as the recruitment rate or training, which influence their needs and availability of personnel. By using system dynamics, one can gain insights on how the different parameters of manpower affect the overall system with regards to system metrics such as cost. Preliminary results indicate that system dynamics can be used to effectively model manpower elements at a high level to aid in the investigation of manpower policies while also providing an understanding of their effect on cost and performance metrics.