TY - JOUR
T1 - Systematic analysis of framing bias in missile defense
T2 - Implications toward visualization design
AU - Park, Sungsoon
AU - Rothrock, Ling
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors wish to thank The Army Research Laboratory and Micro Analysis and Design, Inc. for funding this research. The views, opinions, and/or findings contained in this report are those of the author(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy, or decision, unless so designated by other documentation.
PY - 2007/11/1
Y1 - 2007/11/1
N2 - This paper examines the effects of framing on decision making in a homeland missile defense context across three tasks of varying complexity. Mathematically, each task was modeled as abstractions from a common resource allocation task. Logically, therefore, the effects of framing on human subjects should have been consistent across all the tasks. In the first experiment, a simple lottery was used to determine risk postures in a single-attribute case of missile defense. Results showed that, consistent with Prospect Theory, positive framing promotes risk-averse behavior whereas negative framing promotes risk-seeking behavior. In the second experiment, we used the Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine subject rankings in a multi-attribute case of missile defense. Results suggest that subjects' performances under positive framing were significantly better than performances under negative framing. In the third experiment, we used a human-in-the-loop simulation to elicit human decisions in a missile defense resource allocation task. In comparison to the other experiments, the framing effect in the third experiment was diminished. We submit that decision biases detected in a simple choice task cannot be assumed to carry over to tasks of greater complexity even if the underlying mathematical formulation for all the tasks is the same. Moreover, we submit that the design of the graphical interface has a greater influence on human judgment bias than framing in tasks of higher complexity.
AB - This paper examines the effects of framing on decision making in a homeland missile defense context across three tasks of varying complexity. Mathematically, each task was modeled as abstractions from a common resource allocation task. Logically, therefore, the effects of framing on human subjects should have been consistent across all the tasks. In the first experiment, a simple lottery was used to determine risk postures in a single-attribute case of missile defense. Results showed that, consistent with Prospect Theory, positive framing promotes risk-averse behavior whereas negative framing promotes risk-seeking behavior. In the second experiment, we used the Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine subject rankings in a multi-attribute case of missile defense. Results suggest that subjects' performances under positive framing were significantly better than performances under negative framing. In the third experiment, we used a human-in-the-loop simulation to elicit human decisions in a missile defense resource allocation task. In comparison to the other experiments, the framing effect in the third experiment was diminished. We submit that decision biases detected in a simple choice task cannot be assumed to carry over to tasks of greater complexity even if the underlying mathematical formulation for all the tasks is the same. Moreover, we submit that the design of the graphical interface has a greater influence on human judgment bias than framing in tasks of higher complexity.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.ejor.2006.07.043
DO - 10.1016/j.ejor.2006.07.043
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:34248163418
SN - 0377-2217
VL - 182
SP - 1383
EP - 1398
JO - European Journal of Operational Research
JF - European Journal of Operational Research
IS - 3
ER -