@article{e08b65adcab74504b0184f4690fc90b0,
title = "Technological progress and the duration of contribution spans",
abstract = "This study uses the scientific and patent literature as a source of data to analyze the relationship between author/inventor contribution spans and the rate of technological progress in two chemical fields. Using survival analysis statistics, the authors examine the probability that an individual will contribute to the field for a specified length of time and the probability that an individual, having contributed to the field for a specified period of time, will cease to contribute in the future. The authors also test the significance of several covariates in predicting the length of contribution spans.",
author = "Rappa, {Michael A.} and Koenraad Debackere and Raghu Garud",
note = "Funding Information: based studies and some of which are more generic in nature. Given that the primary interesti n this researchi s to understandp rogressi n a field, it will be necessaryt o construct a data set that implements a time-varying covariated ata structure.S uch an approachw ill permit a more careful scrutiny of the dynamic phenomenat hat affect an author/inventor{\textquoteright}s contribution span. Furthermore, this approachw ill allow for the examinationo f whether or not changes in the hazard rate of a community can serve as an indicator of future momentumo f the field. It is also necessaryt o determinet he extent to which the present and future findings from the EPDM and polypropylene fields can be generalizedt o other fields of science and technology and to examine the importance of other explanatory variables in understandingc ontribution spans. Work is currently under way to addresst hesei ssues. First, a preliminary investigation suggestst hat data from the literature are structuredi n such a manner that time-varying covariates should be feasible to create. Second, data sets for ten additional fields are currently being constructed, with fields varying in terms of their size and disciplinary composition, the national and sectoral distribution of their author/inventors,t heir commercial impact, and the degree to which they have succeededi n becoming well-established, institutionalized researchc ommunities. Third, further studiesw ill be supplemented with other data, derived both from the literature and other sources. We believe the approacht oward the scientific and technological literature outlined in this paper offers new perspectivest o the application of bibliometric methodst o technological forecasting. Instead of predicting the growth and the decline of particular fields by looking at publication or patent volumes, our research points to the usefulness of publication and patent information in determining the contribution spans of researchers. Analyzing contribution spans may eventually serve as a useful tool for managers and governmentp olicy makersw ho are responsiblef or monitoring the progresso f emerging technologies globally. In essence, we are proposing a technique that allows one to gauget he worldwide pulse of technological progressb y measuringt he rate of change in researchers{\textquoteright}c ommitment to a field. By focusing on the determinantso f researcherc on-tribution spans, our aim is to shift attentiona way from predicting the technological future and toward understandingt he underlying fundamentals of researchb ehavior. Improvements in our understandingo f survival and hazard rates for researchersi n a field may ultimately lead to the identification of critical factors and events that can inform our policy decisions regarding emerging technologies. In this manner, we suggestt hat mea-surementso f researchers{\textquoteright}p ersistenceu sing contribution spans may serve as an indicator of change in the rate of technological progressi n a particular field. Perhapsw e can most clearly envision our technological future by understandingi n a comprehensivea nd systematic manner the sustained commitment of researcherst o the ideas they are pursuing today. The authors thankH ans van Goal, Jef Vincent, George Evans, and Oscar Hauptman for helpful commentsa nd assistance. This study was funded, in part, with a grant from DSM Research. Dr. Debackere{\textquoteright}s research was supported by a fellowship from KM (Brussels). Preliminary results of this research were presenteda t the Decision Sciences Institute First International Meeting held in Brussels, Belgium, 24-26 June 1991.",
year = "1992",
month = sep,
doi = "10.1016/0040-1625(92)90004-D",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "42",
pages = "133--145",
journal = "Technological Forecasting and Social Change",
issn = "0040-1625",
publisher = "Elsevier Inc.",
number = "2",
}