The association between state-based provisional attendance periods and adolescent middle school-entry vaccination coverage

The rise of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks calls for a deeper understanding of the impact of policy on school-entry vaccine compliance. Provisional attendance policies vary by state but permit under-vaccinated students a limited period to attend school while receiving their immunizations. The primary objective of this study was to clarify the relationship between annual immunization coverage and state provisional policies for a single-dose of school-entry-required adolescent vaccinations: tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis (Tdap), meningococcal conjugate (MCV4), and human papillomavirus (HPV). From June 22, 2020 to August 20, 2020, the Immunization Action Coalition and state-level Department of Health (DOH) webpages were reviewed with email confirmation with a DOH representative to determine provisional period policy. Vaccination coverage for Tdap, MCV4, and HPV were obtained from the Center for Disease Control's National Immunization Survey. Overall, 49 states and D.C. legally mandate exclusion of vaccine noncompliant adolescents, and the majority of jurisdictions assign responsibility for exclusion to local school officials (84%). Complete provisional period data was obtained for 46/51 jurisdictions. The effect of provisional period length categorized as 0 days (18 jurisdictions, 35.3%), 1 to 30 days (18 jurisdictions, 35.3%), 31+ days (10 jurisdictions, 19.6%), and “unclear” (5 jurisdictions with incomplete data, 9.8%) had no significant association with annual adolescent vaccination coverage for Tdap (p = 0.82), MCV4 (p = 0.08), and HPV (p = 0.76). Provisional policies may not increase vaccination coverage as anticipated. Unintended consequences, such as increased nonmedical exemptions and increased demands on clinical providers, are additional factors to consider.