The asymmetric effects of fossil fuel dependency on the carbon intensity of well-being: A U.S. state-level analysis, 1999–2017

The resource dependency literature argues that intensifying processes of dependency can lead to poorer socioecological outcomes, but the effects of reducing dependency remain untested. Some scholars argue that it improves socioecological conditions, while other strands of research suggest that it causes economic hardship, as evidenced by the deaths of despair crisis. Here, I examine the asymmetric effects of fossil fuel dependency (measured as the energy production-consumption ratio, the share of exports from the mining sector, and the share of GDP from the mining sector) on the carbon intensity of well-being (CIWB) at the U.S. state-level. I do so by estimating dynamic asymmetric models with fixed effects estimation. I find that increases in all three measures are associated with increases in the CIWB. Decreases in the energy production-consumption ratio and the share of exports from the mining sector do not affect the CIWB, while a decrease in the share of GDP from the mining sector produces a proportional reduction in the CIWB relative to an increase. The estimated net effect of all three variables suggests that an increase in fossil fuel dependency increases the CIWB, while a decrease has no effect. When the CIWB is disaggregated, I find that changes in the energy production-consumption ratio are driving changes in emissions and that changes in the share of GDP from the mining sector are responsible for changes in health-adjusted life expectancy. Given that the net effect of a decrease in fossil fuel dependency is not statistically significant, I conclude by arguing that a planned, managed transition away from fossil fuel extraction is critical to ensuring simultaneous improvements in human and environmental well-being.