The “Dark Figure” of Incarceration—The Imposition of Consecutive Incarceration Sentences as a Window of Discretion

Objectives: The decision to impose consecutive incarceration sentences, rather than concurrent, is an important discretionary decision that is often not structured by guidelines. We develop and test expectations, guided by the focal concerns framework, regarding case and defendant characteristics that are likely to evoke heightened perceptions of blameworthiness and danger, and thus should be more likely to result in consecutive incarceration. Methods: We use data on individuals sentenced in Pennsylvania from 2015 to 2019 to predict the odds of receiving a consecutive incarceration sentence. Results: We find that individuals convicted of violent offenses and those convicted of behavior spanning multiple criminal incidents were much more likely to receive consecutive incarceration. We found no evidence of differences across race of the defendant in the likelihood of receiving consecutive incarceration. We also demonstrate a strong relationship between consecutive incarceration and mode of conviction; those convicted by trial had much greater odds of receiving consecutive incarceration. Conclusions: Our findings raise unexamined questions about sentencing policy, including sentencing guidelines, wherein the decision between consecutive and concurrent incarceration is highly consequential, unguided, and unstructured.