The Identification of Pretreatment Trajectories of Alcohol Use and Their Relationship to Treatment Outcome in Men and Women With Alcohol Use Disorder

Background: Few studies have focused on behavioral changes that occur prior to entering treatment for an alcohol use disorder (AUD). In 2 studies (Psychol Addict Behav, 27, 2013, 1159; J Stud Alcohol, 66, 2005, 369), pretreatment reductions in alcohol use were associated with better treatment outcomes. Identifying patterns of pretreatment change has the potential to inform clinical decision making. Methods: This study sought to identify pretreatment change trajectories in individuals seeking outpatient treatment for AUD (N = 205) using finite mixture modeling based on changes in number of days abstinent per week (NDA). Results: The analysis identified 3 pretreatment trajectory classes. Class 1 (High Abstinence—Minimal Increase; HA-MI) (n = 64; 31.2%) reported a high level of pretreatment NDA with minimal change during an 8-week pretreatment interval. Class 2 (Low Abstinence—Steady Increase; LA-SI) (n = 73; 35.6%) reported a low level of pretreatment NDA followed by a steady increase beginning 2 weeks prior to the phone screen. Class 3 (Nonabstinent—Accelerated Increase; NA-AI) (n = 68; 33.2%) reported no or very low levels of pretreatment NDA but demonstrated an increase following the phone screen. With regard to within-treatment change, Class 1 demonstrated the least and Class 3 demonstrated the most change in NDA. From baseline to 6-month follow-up, Class 3 added 2.31 abstinent days per week, Class 2 added 0.69 days, and Class 1 added 0.63 days. The increase in NDA for Class 3 was significantly different from the other 2 classes; however, Class 3 reported fewer overall days abstinent at 6-month follow-up. Conclusions: Study results have clinical and research implications including recommended changes to treatment protocols and research designs. Understanding the impact of pretreatment trajectories of alcohol use on within-treatment and posttreatment outcomes may provide important information about adapting treatment to increase efficiency and effectiveness.