The (In)congruence Between Stated and Revealed Preferences: The Role of Substance Use Dependence

Examining the congruence, or consistency, between stated (expressed attitudes, beliefs) and revealed preferences (observed behavior) may be instrumental in understanding criminal decision making. To study this, we focus on the incongruence between stated preferences for staying out of trouble with the law and self-reported criminal behavior and draw from trait theories, social control and behavioral addictions to develop exploratory hypotheses. Data from the Pathways to Desistance and Crossroads studies were used to estimate group-based trajectory models. Results show heterogeneous trends in congruence. Specifically, substance dependence is significantly related to an increase in the probability of incongruence across all trajectory groups.