The INF treaty and new START: Escalation control, strategic fatalism, and the role of cyber

The fate of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (Treaty) originally signed in 1987 between the US and the Soviet Union now appears sealed. US and Russian compliance with the INF Treaty ended in August 2019. INF withdrawal is significant not only for immediate force sizes and structures but also for the dynamics of nuclear deterrence in Europe and Asia. Nowadays and going forward, the assessment of nuclear forces will be based on their agility, flexibility, and responsiveness to diverse circumstances of nuclear crisis management or of limited deterrence failure. As such, the significance of “cyber” grows accordingly: the “smartness” of deterrent forces, including their suitability for escalation control and conflict termination, depends upon their information-dependent system integrity and resilience, especially if the template is complicated by the addition of missile defenses to the equation.