The influence of realistic 3D mantle viscosity on Antarctica’s contribution to future global sea levels

Natalya Gomez; Maryam Yousefi; David Pollard; Robert M. DeConto; Shaina Sadai; Andrew Lloyd; Andrew Nyblade; Douglas A. Wiens; Richard C. Aster; Terry Wilson

doi:10.1126/sciadv.adn1470

The influence of realistic 3D mantle viscosity on Antarctica’s contribution to future global sea levels

Natalya Gomez, Maryam Yousefi, David Pollard, Robert M. DeConto, Shaina Sadai, Andrew Lloyd, Andrew Nyblade, Douglas A. Wiens, Richard C. Aster, Terry Wilson

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climate change is the largest uncertainty in projecting future sea level. The impact of three-dimensional (3D) Earth structure on the AIS and future global sea levels is assessed here by coupling a global glacial isostatic adjustment model incorporating 3D Earth structure to a dynamic ice-sheet model. We show that including 3D viscous effects produces rapid uplift in marine sectors and reduces projected ice loss for low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, lowering Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level in the coming centuries by up to ~40%. Under high-emission scenarios, ice retreat outpaces uplift, and sea-level rise is amplified by water expulsion from Antarctic marine areas.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	eadn1470
Journal	Science Advances
Volume	10
Issue number	31
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adn1470
State	Published - Aug 2 2024

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UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1126/sciadv.adn1470

Cite this

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title = "The influence of realistic 3D mantle viscosity on Antarctica{\textquoteright}s contribution to future global sea levels",

abstract = "The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climate change is the largest uncertainty in projecting future sea level. The impact of three-dimensional (3D) Earth structure on the AIS and future global sea levels is assessed here by coupling a global glacial isostatic adjustment model incorporating 3D Earth structure to a dynamic ice-sheet model. We show that including 3D viscous effects produces rapid uplift in marine sectors and reduces projected ice loss for low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, lowering Antarctica{\textquoteright}s contribution to global sea level in the coming centuries by up to ~40%. Under high-emission scenarios, ice retreat outpaces uplift, and sea-level rise is amplified by water expulsion from Antarctic marine areas.",

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AU - Gomez, Natalya

AU - Yousefi, Maryam

AU - Pollard, David

AU - DeConto, Robert M.

AU - Sadai, Shaina

AU - Lloyd, Andrew

AU - Nyblade, Andrew

AU - Wiens, Douglas A.

AU - Aster, Richard C.

AU - Wilson, Terry

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N2 - The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climate change is the largest uncertainty in projecting future sea level. The impact of three-dimensional (3D) Earth structure on the AIS and future global sea levels is assessed here by coupling a global glacial isostatic adjustment model incorporating 3D Earth structure to a dynamic ice-sheet model. We show that including 3D viscous effects produces rapid uplift in marine sectors and reduces projected ice loss for low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, lowering Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level in the coming centuries by up to ~40%. Under high-emission scenarios, ice retreat outpaces uplift, and sea-level rise is amplified by water expulsion from Antarctic marine areas.

AB - The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climate change is the largest uncertainty in projecting future sea level. The impact of three-dimensional (3D) Earth structure on the AIS and future global sea levels is assessed here by coupling a global glacial isostatic adjustment model incorporating 3D Earth structure to a dynamic ice-sheet model. We show that including 3D viscous effects produces rapid uplift in marine sectors and reduces projected ice loss for low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, lowering Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level in the coming centuries by up to ~40%. Under high-emission scenarios, ice retreat outpaces uplift, and sea-level rise is amplified by water expulsion from Antarctic marine areas.

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The influence of realistic 3D mantle viscosity on Antarctica’s contribution to future global sea levels

Abstract

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UN SDGs

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