The mesoscale predictability experiment (MPEX)

The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) field campaign incorporates enhanced mesoscale observations of the upstream and nearby convective environment to improve the predictability of convective events. A mission timeline helps to clarify the relative placement and roles of the modeling and observational assets employed during MPEX. Five research model configurations were used in MPEX in addition to the operational models to make weather forecasts and judge forecast uncertainty. For MPEX, each ensemble member forecast includ?ed a contiguous United States (CONUS) mesoscale and two-thirds CONUS nest with forecast products based on the explicit nest. The 30-member ensemble forecasts extending through 48 h were produced twice daily. The real-time WRF ensemble forecasts generated during this period were also used to objectively deter?mine the locations and variables where errors would have the greatest impact on subsequent forecasts of convection using the ensemble-based sensitivity analysis (ESA) technique. research is ongoing to quantify the practical predictability of convective initiation, how it is influenced by the assimilation of MPEX dropsonde observations, to examine how both observational and PBL parameterization uncertainty limits its intrinsic predictability, and to identify systematic model biases influencing the skillful prediction of convective initiation.