The Misquantification of Probative Value

D. H. Kaye; Jonathan J. Koehler

doi:10.1023/B:LAHU.0000004892.94380.88

The Misquantification of Probative Value

D. H. Kaye
, Jonathan J. Koehler

Penn State Law (University Park)

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

30 Scopus citations

Abstract

D. Davis and W. C. Follette (2002) purport to show that when "the base rate" for a crime is low, the probative value of " characteristics known to be strongly associated with the crime ... will be virtually nil." Their analysis rests on the choice of an arbitrary and inapposite measure of the probative value of evidence. When a more suitable metric is used (e.g., a likelihood ratio), it becomes clear that evidence they would dismiss as devoid of probative value is relevant and diagnostic.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	645-659
Number of pages	15
Journal	Law and human behavior
Volume	27
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1023/B:LAHU.0000004892.94380.88
State	Published - Dec 2003

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being
SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous)
General Psychology
Psychiatry and Mental health
Law

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10.1023/B:LAHU.0000004892.94380.88

Cite this

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AB - D. Davis and W. C. Follette (2002) purport to show that when "the base rate" for a crime is low, the probative value of " characteristics known to be strongly associated with the crime ... will be virtually nil." Their analysis rests on the choice of an arbitrary and inapposite measure of the probative value of evidence. When a more suitable metric is used (e.g., a likelihood ratio), it becomes clear that evidence they would dismiss as devoid of probative value is relevant and diagnostic.

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The Misquantification of Probative Value

Abstract

UN SDGs

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

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