The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data

Steve Bryson; Michelle Kunimoto; Ravi K. Kopparapu; Jeffrey L. Coughlin; William J. Borucki; David Koch; Victor Silva Aguirre; Christopher Allen; Geert Barentsen; Natalie M. Batalha; Travis Berger; Alan Boss; Lars A. Buchhave; Christopher J. Burke; Douglas A. Caldwell; Jennifer R. Campbell; Joseph Catanzarite; Hema Chandrasekaran; William J. Chaplin; Jessie L. Christiansen; J. rgen Christensen-Dalsgaard; David R. Ciardi; Bruce D. Clarke; William D. Cochran; Jessie L. Dotson; Laurance R. Doyle; Eduardo Seperuelo Duarte; Edward W. Dunham; Andrea K. Dupree; Michael Endl; James L. Fanson; Eric B. Ford; Maura Fujieh; Thomas N. Gautier; John C. Geary; Ronald L. Gilliland; Forrest R. Girouard; Alan Gould; Michael R. Haas; Christopher E. Henze; Matthew J. Holman; Andrew W. Howard; Steve B. Howell; Daniel Huber; Roger C. Hunter; Jon M. Jenkins; Hans Kjeldsen; Jeffery Kolodziejczak; Kipp Larson; David W. Latham; Jie Li; Savita Mathur; S. ren Meibom; Chris Middour; Robert L. Morris; Timothy D. Morton; Fergal Mullally; Susan E. Mullally; David Pletcher; Andrej Prsa; Samuel N. Quinn; Elisa V. Quintana; Darin Ragozzine; Solange V. Ramirez; Dwight T. Sanderfer; Dimitar Sasselov; Shawn E. Seader; Megan Shabram; Avi Shporer; Jeffrey C. Smith; Jason H. Steffen; Martin Still; Guillermo Torres; John Troeltzsch; Joseph D. Twicken; Akm Kamal Uddin; Jeffrey E. Van Cleve; Janice Voss; Lauren M. Weiss; William F. Welsh; Bill Wohler; Khadeejah A. Zamudio

doi:10.3847/1538-3881/abc418

The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data

Steve Bryson, Michelle Kunimoto, Ravi K. Kopparapu, Jeffrey L. Coughlin, William J. Borucki, David Koch, Victor Silva Aguirre, Christopher Allen, Geert Barentsen, Natalie M. Batalha, Travis Berger, Alan Boss, Lars A. Buchhave, Christopher J. Burke, Douglas A. Caldwell, Jennifer R. Campbell, Joseph Catanzarite, Hema Chandrasekaran, William J. Chaplin, Jessie L. ChristiansenJ. rgen Christensen-Dalsgaard, David R. Ciardi, Bruce D. Clarke, William D. Cochran, Jessie L. Dotson, Laurance R. Doyle, Eduardo Seperuelo Duarte, Edward W. Dunham, Andrea K. Dupree, Michael Endl, James L. Fanson, Eric B. Ford, Maura Fujieh, Thomas N. Gautier, John C. Geary, Ronald L. Gilliland, Forrest R. Girouard, Alan Gould, Michael R. Haas, Christopher E. Henze, Matthew J. Holman, Andrew W. Howard, Steve B. Howell, Daniel Huber, Roger C. Hunter, Jon M. Jenkins, Hans Kjeldsen, Jeffery Kolodziejczak, Kipp Larson, David W. Latham, Jie Li, Savita Mathur, S. ren Meibom, Chris Middour, Robert L. Morris, Timothy D. Morton, Fergal Mullally, Susan E. Mullally, David Pletcher, Andrej Prsa, Samuel N. Quinn, Elisa V. Quintana, Darin Ragozzine, Solange V. Ramirez, Dwight T. Sanderfer, Dimitar Sasselov, Shawn E. Seader, Megan Shabram, Avi Shporer, Jeffrey C. Smith, Jason H. Steffen, Martin Still, Guillermo Torres, John Troeltzsch, Joseph D. Twicken, Akm Kamal Uddin, Jeffrey E. Van Cleve, Janice Voss, Lauren M. Weiss, William F. Welsh, Bill Wohler, Khadeejah A. Zamudio

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Abstract

We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define η ⊕ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R ⊕ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that η ⊕ for the conservative HZ is between 0.37-0.21+0.48 (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and 0.60-0.36+0.90 planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between 0.58-0.33+0.73 and 0.88-0.51+1.28 planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is ∼6 pc away and there are ∼4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	36
Journal	Astronomical Journal
Volume	161
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/abc418
State	Published - Jan 2021

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Astronomy and Astrophysics
Space and Planetary Science

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10.3847/1538-3881/abc418

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Bryson, S., Kunimoto, M., Kopparapu, R. K., Coughlin, J. L., Borucki, W. J., Koch, D., Aguirre, V. S., Allen, C., Barentsen, G., Batalha, N. M., Berger, T., Boss, A., Buchhave, L. A., Burke, C. J., Caldwell, D. A., Campbell, J. R., Catanzarite, J., Chandrasekaran, H., Chaplin, W. J., ... Zamudio, K. A. (2021). The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data. Astronomical Journal, 161(1), Article 36. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/abc418

@article{5ec343aa658b43649712adbd3136ca0a,

title = "The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data",

abstract = "We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define η ⊕ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R ⊕ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that η ⊕ for the conservative HZ is between 0.37-0.21+0.48 (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and 0.60-0.36+0.90 planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between 0.58-0.33+0.73 and 0.88-0.51+1.28 planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is ∼6 pc away and there are ∼4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.",

author = "Steve Bryson and Michelle Kunimoto and Kopparapu, {Ravi K.} and Coughlin, {Jeffrey L.} and Borucki, {William J.} and David Koch and Aguirre, {Victor Silva} and Christopher Allen and Geert Barentsen and Batalha, {Natalie M.} and Travis Berger and Alan Boss and Buchhave, {Lars A.} and Burke, {Christopher J.} and Caldwell, {Douglas A.} and Campbell, {Jennifer R.} and Joseph Catanzarite and Hema Chandrasekaran and Chaplin, {William J.} and Christiansen, {Jessie L.} and Christensen-Dalsgaard, {J. rgen} and Ciardi, {David R.} and Clarke, {Bruce D.} and Cochran, {William D.} and Dotson, {Jessie L.} and Doyle, {Laurance R.} and Duarte, {Eduardo Seperuelo} and Dunham, {Edward W.} and Dupree, {Andrea K.} and Michael Endl and Fanson, {James L.} and Ford, {Eric B.} and Maura Fujieh and Gautier, {Thomas N.} and Geary, {John C.} and Gilliland, {Ronald L.} and Girouard, {Forrest R.} and Alan Gould and Haas, {Michael R.} and Henze, {Christopher E.} and Holman, {Matthew J.} and Howard, {Andrew W.} and Howell, {Steve B.} and Daniel Huber and Hunter, {Roger C.} and Jenkins, {Jon M.} and Hans Kjeldsen and Jeffery Kolodziejczak and Kipp Larson and Latham, {David W.} and Jie Li and Savita Mathur and Meibom, {S. ren} and Chris Middour and Morris, {Robert L.} and Morton, {Timothy D.} and Fergal Mullally and Mullally, {Susan E.} and David Pletcher and Andrej Prsa and Quinn, {Samuel N.} and Quintana, {Elisa V.} and Darin Ragozzine and Ramirez, {Solange V.} and Sanderfer, {Dwight T.} and Dimitar Sasselov and Seader, {Shawn E.} and Megan Shabram and Avi Shporer and Smith, {Jeffrey C.} and Steffen, {Jason H.} and Martin Still and Guillermo Torres and John Troeltzsch and Twicken, {Joseph D.} and Uddin, {Akm Kamal} and {Van Cleve}, {Jeffrey E.} and Janice Voss and Weiss, {Lauren M.} and Welsh, {William F.} and Bill Wohler and Zamudio, {Khadeejah A.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society.",

year = "2021",

month = jan,

doi = "10.3847/1538-3881/abc418",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "161",

journal = "Astronomical Journal",

issn = "0004-6256",

publisher = "American Astronomical Society",

number = "1",

}

Bryson, S, Kunimoto, M, Kopparapu, RK, Coughlin, JL, Borucki, WJ, Koch, D, Aguirre, VS, Allen, C, Barentsen, G, Batalha, NM, Berger, T, Boss, A, Buchhave, LA, Burke, CJ, Caldwell, DA, Campbell, JR, Catanzarite, J, Chandrasekaran, H, Chaplin, WJ, Christiansen, JL, Christensen-Dalsgaard, JR, Ciardi, DR, Clarke, BD, Cochran, WD, Dotson, JL, Doyle, LR, Duarte, ES, Dunham, EW, Dupree, AK, Endl, M, Fanson, JL, Ford, EB, Fujieh, M, Gautier, TN, Geary, JC, Gilliland, RL, Girouard, FR, Gould, A, Haas, MR, Henze, CE, Holman, MJ, Howard, AW, Howell, SB, Huber, D, Hunter, RC, Jenkins, JM, Kjeldsen, H, Kolodziejczak, J, Larson, K, Latham, DW, Li, J, Mathur, S, Meibom, SR, Middour, C, Morris, RL, Morton, TD, Mullally, F, Mullally, SE, Pletcher, D, Prsa, A, Quinn, SN, Quintana, EV, Ragozzine, D, Ramirez, SV, Sanderfer, DT, Sasselov, D, Seader, SE, Shabram, M, Shporer, A, Smith, JC, Steffen, JH, Still, M, Torres, G, Troeltzsch, J, Twicken, JD, Uddin, AK, Van Cleve, JE, Voss, J, Weiss, LM, Welsh, WF, Wohler, B & Zamudio, KA 2021, 'The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data', Astronomical Journal, vol. 161, no. 1, 36. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/abc418

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data

AU - Bryson, Steve

AU - Kunimoto, Michelle

AU - Kopparapu, Ravi K.

AU - Coughlin, Jeffrey L.

AU - Borucki, William J.

AU - Koch, David

AU - Aguirre, Victor Silva

AU - Allen, Christopher

AU - Barentsen, Geert

AU - Batalha, Natalie M.

AU - Berger, Travis

AU - Boss, Alan

AU - Buchhave, Lars A.

AU - Burke, Christopher J.

AU - Caldwell, Douglas A.

AU - Campbell, Jennifer R.

AU - Catanzarite, Joseph

AU - Chandrasekaran, Hema

AU - Chaplin, William J.

AU - Christiansen, Jessie L.

AU - Christensen-Dalsgaard, J. rgen

AU - Ciardi, David R.

AU - Clarke, Bruce D.

AU - Cochran, William D.

AU - Dotson, Jessie L.

AU - Doyle, Laurance R.

AU - Duarte, Eduardo Seperuelo

AU - Dunham, Edward W.

AU - Dupree, Andrea K.

AU - Endl, Michael

AU - Fanson, James L.

AU - Ford, Eric B.

AU - Fujieh, Maura

AU - Gautier, Thomas N.

AU - Geary, John C.

AU - Gilliland, Ronald L.

AU - Girouard, Forrest R.

AU - Gould, Alan

AU - Haas, Michael R.

AU - Henze, Christopher E.

AU - Holman, Matthew J.

AU - Howard, Andrew W.

AU - Howell, Steve B.

AU - Huber, Daniel

AU - Hunter, Roger C.

AU - Jenkins, Jon M.

AU - Kjeldsen, Hans

AU - Kolodziejczak, Jeffery

AU - Larson, Kipp

AU - Latham, David W.

AU - Li, Jie

AU - Mathur, Savita

AU - Meibom, S. ren

AU - Middour, Chris

AU - Morris, Robert L.

AU - Morton, Timothy D.

AU - Mullally, Fergal

AU - Mullally, Susan E.

AU - Pletcher, David

AU - Prsa, Andrej

AU - Quinn, Samuel N.

AU - Quintana, Elisa V.

AU - Ragozzine, Darin

AU - Ramirez, Solange V.

AU - Sanderfer, Dwight T.

AU - Sasselov, Dimitar

AU - Seader, Shawn E.

AU - Shabram, Megan

AU - Shporer, Avi

AU - Smith, Jeffrey C.

AU - Steffen, Jason H.

AU - Still, Martin

AU - Torres, Guillermo

AU - Troeltzsch, John

AU - Twicken, Joseph D.

AU - Uddin, Akm Kamal

AU - Van Cleve, Jeffrey E.

AU - Voss, Janice

AU - Weiss, Lauren M.

AU - Welsh, William F.

AU - Wohler, Bill

AU - Zamudio, Khadeejah A.

PY - 2021/1

Y1 - 2021/1

N2 - We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define η ⊕ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R ⊕ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that η ⊕ for the conservative HZ is between 0.37-0.21+0.48 (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and 0.60-0.36+0.90 planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between 0.58-0.33+0.73 and 0.88-0.51+1.28 planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is ∼6 pc away and there are ∼4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

AB - We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define η ⊕ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R ⊕ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that η ⊕ for the conservative HZ is between 0.37-0.21+0.48 (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and 0.60-0.36+0.90 planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between 0.58-0.33+0.73 and 0.88-0.51+1.28 planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is ∼6 pc away and there are ∼4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85098570452&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85098570452&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.3847/1538-3881/abc418

DO - 10.3847/1538-3881/abc418

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85098570452

SN - 0004-6256

VL - 161

JO - Astronomical Journal

JF - Astronomical Journal

IS - 1

M1 - 36

ER -

The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data

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