@article{e4718dad09d64e5f90d2d65c651bd646,
title = "The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper-Tail Sea Level Rise Projections",
abstract = "The current uncertainty surrounding the Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity is an important driver for climate hazard projections. While the implications for projected global temperature changes have been extensively studied, the impacts on sea level projections have been relatively unexplored. Here we analyze the relationship between the climate sensitivity and sea level projections, with a particular focus on the high-impact upper tail. We utilize a Bayesian calibration of key climate and sea level parameters using historical observations and the reduced-complexity Earth system model, Hector-BRICK. This methodology allows us to focus on plausible realizations of the climate system in a probabilistic framework. We analyze the effects of high-end climate sensitivity (above 5 K) on projections and spatial patterns of sea level change. The sea level projections hinge critically on the upper tail of the climate sensitivity, especially for the highly decision-relevant upper tail. Results have important implications for timing of threshold exceedances and regional variability.",
author = "B. Vega-Westhoff and Sriver, {R. L.} and C. Hartin and Wong, {T. E.} and K. Keller",
note = "Funding Information: The Hector‐BRICK calibration code (Vega‐Westhoff, ; http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1472378 ), MCMC parameter chains (Vega‐Westhoff, ; http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1472387 ), and sampled hindcasts and projections (Vega‐Westhoff, ; http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3628215 ) are available on Zenodo. Contributions from B. V. W., R. L. S., and C. H. were supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, as part of research in Multi‐Sector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE‐AC05‐76RL01830. Contributions from T. E. W. were supported by the Penn State Center for Climate Risk Management. Contributions from K. K. were supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics, Contract DE‐SC0016162 and the Penn State Center for Climate Risk Management. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their invaluable inputs. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone. Funding Information: The Hector-BRICK calibration code (Vega-Westhoff,; http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1472378), MCMC parameter chains (Vega-Westhoff,; http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1472387), and sampled hindcasts and projections (Vega-Westhoff,; http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3628215) are available on Zenodo. Contributions from B. V. W., R. L. S., and C. H. were supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, as part of research in Multi-Sector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. Contributions from T. E. W. were supported by the Penn State Center for Climate Risk Management. Contributions from K. K. were supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics, Contract DE-SC0016162 and the Penn State Center for Climate Risk Management. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their invaluable inputs. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.",
year = "2020",
month = mar,
day = "28",
doi = "10.1029/2019GL085792",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "47",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "6",
}