Thermoporoelastic stress perturbations from hydraulic fracturing and thermal depletion in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) and implications for fault reactivation and seismicity

Hydraulic fracturing then fluid circulation in enhanced geothermal system (EGS) reservoirs have been shown to induce seismicity remote from the stimulation – potentially generated by the distal projection of thermoporoelastic stresses. We explore this phenomenon by evaluating stress perturbations resulting from stimulation of a single stage of hydraulic fracturing that is followed by thermal depletion of a prismatic zone adjacent to the hydraulic fracture. We use Coulomb failure stress to assess the effect of resulting stress perturbations on instability on adjacent critically-stressed faults. Results show that hydraulic fracturing in a single stage is capable of creating stress perturbations at distances to 1000 m that reach 10⁻⁵-10⁻⁴ MPa. At a closer distance, the magnitude of stress perturbations increases even further. The stress perturbation induced by temperature depletion could also reach 10⁻³-10⁻² MPa within 1000 m - much higher than that by hydraulic fracturing. Considering that a critical change in Coulomb failure stress for fault instability is 10⁻² MPa, a single stage of hydraulic fracturing and thermal drawdown are capable of reactivating critically-stressed faults at distances within 200 m and 1000 m, respectively. These results have important implications for understanding the distribution and magnitudes of stress perturbations driven by thermoporoelastic effects and the associated seismicity during the simulation and early production of EGS reservoirs.