Towards a US-Russian security condominium? the strategic offensive reductions treaty and nuclear arms control

The Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) of May 2002 and other developments in US-Russian relations indicate a depolarization of their political relationship that opens the door to further cooperation in nuclear and other matters. The deployment of jointly agreed missile defenses and other new departures in security may result from the improvement in relations between Washington and Moscow after 9/11. Instead of evolving on autopilot toward further stagnation in nuclear arms control, US and Russian leaders may prefer to move in the direction of a nuclear condominium that favors a defense protected build-down of offensive weapons and additional security cooperation against nuclear and missile proliferation. This study considers how SORT reductions would affect US and Russian security by comparing alternative US and Russian SORT-compliant force postures. In addition, the study also considers the implications of introducing various levels of anti-missile defenses into the equation of offensive force reductions. The first part of the study emphasizes important policy aspects of the problem, whereas the second focuses on the analysis of pertinent data.