TY - JOUR
T1 - Trade, investment and growth
T2 - Nexus, analysis and prognosis
AU - Krishna, Kala
AU - Ozyildirim, Ataman
AU - Swanson, Norman R.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors wish to thank Ann Harrison and David Weil for useful comments on an earlier draft of the paper, and Alexei Deviatov for excellent research assistance. In addition, the paper has benefited greatly from the detailed comments of the editor, Pranab Bardhan, and two anonymous referees, to whom we are very grateful. Parts of this paper were written while the third author was visiting the University of California, San Diego, and he would like to thank the members of the economics department there for providing a stimulating working environment. Krishna and Swanson are grateful to the National Science Foundation for research support under grants SBR-9725019 and SBR-9730102, respectively.
PY - 2003/4
Y1 - 2003/4
N2 - Patterns of causation between income, export, import and investment growth for 39 developing countries are examined using model selection techniques which are based on ex ante predictive ability criteria to identify the best predictive model for each country. In particular, we look at the incidence of causation and reverse causation between various economic variables which are commonly believed to lead economic growth and find that there is less reverse causation from income to these variables than previously thought. We also construct an index of global business cycle conditions and find that models of countries with high trade exposure, growth rates and investment rates tend to gain in predictive ability from the addition of this variable.
AB - Patterns of causation between income, export, import and investment growth for 39 developing countries are examined using model selection techniques which are based on ex ante predictive ability criteria to identify the best predictive model for each country. In particular, we look at the incidence of causation and reverse causation between various economic variables which are commonly believed to lead economic growth and find that there is less reverse causation from income to these variables than previously thought. We also construct an index of global business cycle conditions and find that models of countries with high trade exposure, growth rates and investment rates tend to gain in predictive ability from the addition of this variable.
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U2 - 10.1016/S0304-3878(02)00106-2
DO - 10.1016/S0304-3878(02)00106-2
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0038743171
SN - 0304-3878
VL - 70
SP - 479
EP - 499
JO - Journal of Development Economics
JF - Journal of Development Economics
IS - 2
ER -
