Transport-induced interannual variability of carbon monoxide determined using a chemistry and transport model

Transport-induced interannual variability of carbon monoxide (CO) is studied during 1989-1993 using the Goddard chemistry and transport model (GCTM) driven by assimilated data. Seasonal changes in the latitudinal distribution of CO near the surface and at 500 hPa are captured by the model. The annual cycle of CO is reasonably well simulated at sites of widely varying character. Day to day fluctuations in CO due to synoptic waves are reproduced accurately at remote North Atlantic locations. By fixing the location and magnitude of chemical sources and sinks, the importance of transport-induced variability is investigated at CO-monitoring sites. Transport-induced variability can explain 1991-1993 decreases in CO at Mace Head, Ireland, and St. David's Head, Bermuda, as well as 1991-1993 increases in CO at Key Biscayne, Florida. Transport-induced variability does not explain decreases in CO at southern hemisphere locations. The model calculation explains 80-90% of interannual variability in seasonal CO residuals at Mace Head, St. David's Head, and Key Biscayne and at least 50% of variability in detrended seasonal residuals at Ascension Island and Guam. Upper tropospheric interannual variability during October is less than 8% in the GCTM. Exceptions occur off the western coast of South America, where mixing ratios are sensitive to the strength of an upper tropospheric high, and just north of Madagascar, where concentrations are influenced by the strength of offshore flow from Africa.