Turmoil of Triads? Nuclear Reductions after New START

The United States and Russia have options for resuming their strategic nuclear arms reductions, should more favorable political circumstances present themselves. Both share a responsibility for leadership in the global nonproliferation regime, and both the U.S. and Russia will face future trade-offs between domestic economic priorities and nuclear force modernization. Analysis suggests that reductions to a maximum number of 1,000 deployed nuclear weapons on intercontinental launchers for each state should allow for sufficient numbers of second-strike-survivable weapons for stable deterrence. Below that number, either the U.S. or Russia might feel a sense of insufficient flexibility and resilience in its strategic nuclear forces, and in addition, reductions significantly below 1,000 deployed weapons would require the participation of other nuclear weapons states.