TY - JOUR
T1 - Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models
AU - Webster, M. D.
AU - Babiker, M.
AU - Mayer, M.
AU - Reilly, J. M.
AU - Harnisch, J.
AU - Hyman, R.
AU - Sarofim, M. C.
AU - Wang, C.
N1 - Funding Information:
Our thanks to our colleagues in the Joint Program for crucial contributions to this paper and to the development of the IGSM model. Particular thanks to Chris Forest, Andrei Sokolov, Richard Eckaus, David Reiner, Henry Jacoby, Denny Ellerman, Asha Rangaraj and an anonymous reviewer. The IGSM has been developed as part of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change with the support of a government-industry partnership including a grant from the US Department of Energy's Integrated Assessment Program, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), (DE-FG02-94ER61937) and a group of corporate sponsors from the United States and other countries. Research on other gases was conducted with funding support from the US Environmental Protection Agency (X-827703-01-0).
PY - 2002
Y1 - 2002
N2 - Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Results are simulated through 2100 for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), sulfur dioxide (SO2), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ammonia (NH3) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). We construct mean and upper and lower 95% emissions scenarios (available from the authors at 1°×1° latitude-longitude grid). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), we find a temperature change range in 2100 of 0.9 to 4.0°C, compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios that result in a range of 1.3 to 3.6°C when simulated through MIT IGSM.
AB - Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Results are simulated through 2100 for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), sulfur dioxide (SO2), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ammonia (NH3) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). We construct mean and upper and lower 95% emissions scenarios (available from the authors at 1°×1° latitude-longitude grid). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), we find a temperature change range in 2100 of 0.9 to 4.0°C, compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios that result in a range of 1.3 to 3.6°C when simulated through MIT IGSM.
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U2 - 10.1016/S1352-2310(02)00245-5
DO - 10.1016/S1352-2310(02)00245-5
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0035993846
SN - 1352-2310
VL - 36
SP - 3659
EP - 3670
JO - Atmospheric Environment
JF - Atmospheric Environment
IS - 22
ER -
