Upward pricing pressure as a predictor of merger price effects

Nathan H. Miller, Marc Remer, Conor Ryan, Gloria Sheu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

25 Scopus citations


We use Monte Carlo experiments to evaluate whether “upward pricing pressure” (UPP) accurately predicts the price effects of mergers, motivated by the observation that UPP is a restricted form of the first order approximation derived in Jaffe and Weyl (2013). Results indicate that UPP is quite accurate with standard log-concave demand systems, but understates price effects if demand exhibits greater convexity. Prediction error does not systematically exceed that of misspecified simulation models, nor is it much greater than that of correctly-specified models simulated with imprecise demand elasticities. The results also support that UPP provides accurate screens for anticompetitive mergers.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)216-247
Number of pages32
JournalInternational Journal of Industrial Organization
StatePublished - May 1 2017

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Industrial relations
  • Aerospace Engineering
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
  • Strategy and Management
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering


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