TY - JOUR
T1 - Urbanization prolongs hantavirus epidemics in cities
AU - Tian, Huaiyu
AU - Hu, Shixiong
AU - Cazelles, Bernard
AU - Chowell, Gerardo
AU - Gao, Lidong
AU - Laine, Marko
AU - Li, Yapin
AU - Yang, Huisuo
AU - Li, Yidan
AU - Yang, Qiqi
AU - Tong, Xin
AU - Huang, Ru
AU - Bjornstad, Ottar N.
AU - Xiao, Hong
AU - Stenseth, Nils Chr
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank Sari C. Cunningham for her valuable comments and help. We thank the hundreds of Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention staff and local health workers in Hunan Province who collected successive data from 1963 to 2010. We also thank the Hunan Public Security Bureau for providing valuable assistance in the data collection. Funding has been provided by National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant 81673234; National Key Research and Development Program of China Grant 2016YFA0600104; Chinese Health Industry’s Special Research Funds for Public Welfare Projects Grant 201502020; Science and Technology Planning Project of Hunan Province, China Grant 2015JC3063; Shaanxi Provincial Projects for Serious Disease Prevention and Control Grant 0617-15240415; and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
PY - 2018/5/1
Y1 - 2018/5/1
N2 - Urbanization and rural–urban migration are two factors driving global patterns of disease and mortality. There is significant concern about their potential impact on disease burden and the effectiveness of current control approaches. Few attempts have been made to increase our understanding of the relationship between urbanization and disease dynamics, although it is generally believed that urban living has contributed to reductions in communicable disease burden in industrialized countries. To investigate this relationship, we carried out spatiotemporal analyses using a 48-year-long dataset of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence (HFRS; mainly caused by two serotypes of hantavirus in China: Hantaan virus and Seoul virus) and population movements in an important endemic area of south China during the period 1963–2010. Our findings indicate that epidemics coincide with urbanization, geographic expansion, and migrant movement over time. We found a biphasic inverted U-shaped relationship between HFRS incidence and urbanization, with various endemic turning points associated with economic growth rates in cities. Our results revealed the interrelatedness of urbanization, migration, and hantavirus epidemiology, potentially explaining why urbanizing cities with high economic growth exhibit extended epidemics. Our results also highlight contrasting effects of urbanization on zoonotic disease outbreaks during periods of economic development in China.
AB - Urbanization and rural–urban migration are two factors driving global patterns of disease and mortality. There is significant concern about their potential impact on disease burden and the effectiveness of current control approaches. Few attempts have been made to increase our understanding of the relationship between urbanization and disease dynamics, although it is generally believed that urban living has contributed to reductions in communicable disease burden in industrialized countries. To investigate this relationship, we carried out spatiotemporal analyses using a 48-year-long dataset of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence (HFRS; mainly caused by two serotypes of hantavirus in China: Hantaan virus and Seoul virus) and population movements in an important endemic area of south China during the period 1963–2010. Our findings indicate that epidemics coincide with urbanization, geographic expansion, and migrant movement over time. We found a biphasic inverted U-shaped relationship between HFRS incidence and urbanization, with various endemic turning points associated with economic growth rates in cities. Our results revealed the interrelatedness of urbanization, migration, and hantavirus epidemiology, potentially explaining why urbanizing cities with high economic growth exhibit extended epidemics. Our results also highlight contrasting effects of urbanization on zoonotic disease outbreaks during periods of economic development in China.
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U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1712767115
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1712767115
M3 - Article
C2 - 29666240
AN - SCOPUS:85046257187
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 115
SP - 4707
EP - 4712
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 18
ER -