Validation of EPIC model simulations of crop responses to current climate and CO2 conditions: comparisons with census, expert judgment and experimental plot data

Norman J. Rosenberg; Mary McKenney Easterling; William E. Easterling; Kathleen M. Lemon

doi:10.1016/0168-1923(92)90085-I

Validation of EPIC model simulations of crop responses to current climate and CO₂ conditions: comparisons with census, expert judgment and experimental plot data

Norman J. Rosenberg
, Mary McKenney Easterling
, William E. Easterling
, Kathleen M. Lemon

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

40 Scopus citations

Abstract

A crop simulation model must first be capable of representing the actual performance of crops grown in any particular region before it can be applied to the prediction of climate change impacts. Erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) simulations of crop productivity in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region under the 1951-1980 climate were compared with the US Department of Agriculture's 'County Yield Estimates' data (averaged over 1984-1987), with expert estimates of yields for each 'representative' farm and with the results of agronomic experiments reported in the literature. Most EPIC-simulated yields agreed to within ±20% with USDA reported yields and expert estimates, although there were some outliers. EPIC-simulated yields, evapotranspiration and water use efficiency fell well within the range of experimental results. Perfect agreement with observed crop performance was not a requisite nor should it have been expected. We judged the EPIC simulations sufficiently reliable to justify use of the model in simulating the effects of climate change on crops.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	35-51
Number of pages	17
Journal	Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume	59
Issue number	1-2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(92)90085-I
State	Published - Apr 15 1992

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Forestry
Global and Planetary Change
Agronomy and Crop Science
Atmospheric Science

Access to Document

10.1016/0168-1923(92)90085-I

Cite this

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title = "Validation of EPIC model simulations of crop responses to current climate and CO2 conditions: comparisons with census, expert judgment and experimental plot data",

abstract = "A crop simulation model must first be capable of representing the actual performance of crops grown in any particular region before it can be applied to the prediction of climate change impacts. Erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) simulations of crop productivity in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region under the 1951-1980 climate were compared with the US Department of Agriculture's 'County Yield Estimates' data (averaged over 1984-1987), with expert estimates of yields for each 'representative' farm and with the results of agronomic experiments reported in the literature. Most EPIC-simulated yields agreed to within ±20\% with USDA reported yields and expert estimates, although there were some outliers. EPIC-simulated yields, evapotranspiration and water use efficiency fell well within the range of experimental results. Perfect agreement with observed crop performance was not a requisite nor should it have been expected. We judged the EPIC simulations sufficiently reliable to justify use of the model in simulating the effects of climate change on crops.",

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Validation of EPIC model simulations of crop responses to current climate and CO₂ conditions: comparisons with census, expert judgment and experimental plot data. / Rosenberg, Norman J.; Easterling, Mary McKenney; Easterling, William E. et al.
In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 59, No. 1-2, 15.04.1992, p. 35-51.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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AU - Lemon, Kathleen M.

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