Violent conflict and the spread of HIV/AIDS in Africa

It has been widely speculated that violent conflict acts as a key contributor to the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Yet to date no empirical examination of the conflict-HIV relationship has been conducted. Drawing on work in political science and public health, we set forth a theoretical framework for understanding this potential relationship and go on to present data on the spatio-temporal dispersion of HIV/AIDS in 43 African countries during the period from 1997 to 2005. We then assess the association between domestic and international conflict and levels of HIV/AIDS infection while controlling for a range of other influential factors. Our analyses support a clear positive relationship between both international and domestic conflict and climbing HIV/AIDS prevalence, as well as significant palliative effects for education and economic development on the incidence of HIV/AIDS.