TY - JOUR
T1 - When a null pocketbook effect is the artifact
T2 - Strategically underreported income and the attenuation of egotropic voting
AU - Carlson, Elizabeth
AU - Fidalgo, Amanda
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 E. Carlson and A. Fidalgo.
PY - 2016/10/31
Y1 - 2016/10/31
N2 - We argue that the lack of a strong and consistent correlation between egotropic assessments and vote choice in observational data from poor countries may be a statistical artifact resulting from respondents' attempts to evade taxation. Using data from two rounds of the Afrobarometer, we show that respondents report significantly worse economic conditions when they think they are reporting to the government; the likelihood of misreporting increases with actual or perceived effective tax rate. Misreporting causes a conflation in the data between those who are actually experiencing worsening conditions and those who are merely claiming to, attenuating the apparent effect of pocketbook concerns on the vote. When we control for this bias in the African data, we find that egotropic evaluations are significantly and positively correlated with vote choice.
AB - We argue that the lack of a strong and consistent correlation between egotropic assessments and vote choice in observational data from poor countries may be a statistical artifact resulting from respondents' attempts to evade taxation. Using data from two rounds of the Afrobarometer, we show that respondents report significantly worse economic conditions when they think they are reporting to the government; the likelihood of misreporting increases with actual or perceived effective tax rate. Misreporting causes a conflation in the data between those who are actually experiencing worsening conditions and those who are merely claiming to, attenuating the apparent effect of pocketbook concerns on the vote. When we control for this bias in the African data, we find that egotropic evaluations are significantly and positively correlated with vote choice.
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U2 - 10.1561/100.00015172
DO - 10.1561/100.00015172
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84994246384
SN - 1554-0626
VL - 11
SP - 339
EP - 361
JO - Quarterly Journal of Political Science
JF - Quarterly Journal of Political Science
IS - 3
ER -